If Bush wins, Nader will have cost Gore the election.
This theory was first voiced online by Declan McCullagh, as far as I
know now. I had not seen his
when I put together this item. McCullagh addressed only Florida; note
that had Gore won in both New Hampshire and Oregon, he would have bagged
the presidency regardless of which way Florida went.
Updated 2000-11-08, 4:41 pm:
TBTF Irregular Marc Kupper noted that
has picked up the Nader-killed-Gore hypothesis in a story posted 80 minutes
after this item went live. CNN doesn't look at vote totals in the swing states,
but does quote Pat Buchanan offering Nader some friendly advice:
I would currently advise Ralph, given the numbers that I've
seen, that he may be interested in Secret Service protection
when he comes in here this morning from some angry Democrats,
who I'm sure are going to blame him for the defeat of Al Gore.
And if he gets credit for that, more power to him.
Using figures from the
News election summary page, I determined which states went to Bush
but would have gone to Gore had the 3rd-party candidates not been on the
ballot, assuming that Nader votes would have been cast for Gore and
Buchanen votes for Bush. (Two TBTF Irregulars sharply questioned this
assumption; one called the Nader-killed-Gore conclusion "pernicious
nonsense" and the other opined, "Gore beat himself.")
Under these assumptions,
three states would have been solidly in Gore's column with no need for any
recounts: Florida, New Hampshire, and Oregon. Buchanen's
vote totals do not affect these outcomes, only Nader's.
Here are the current vote totals in those three states (from
with and without third parties participating.
as run w/3rd parties w/o 3rd parties
state ev gore bush gore bush
------------- -- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Florida 25 2,907,361 2,909,154 3,004,062 2,926,480
New Hampshire 4 265,853 273,135 288,009 275,738
Oregon 7 559,840 585,975 614,542 591,681
Gore would have won the White House with 296 electoral votes to Bush's 242.
Together Oregon and New Hampshire command 11 electoral votes; this
total would have put Gore over the top (with 271 votes) regardless
of the eventual result of Florida's recount (thanks to TBTF Irregular
Steve Rothman for this catch).
Gates disses digital philanthropy.
As the concluding keynote speaker of the Creating Digital Dividends
conference in Seattle, Bill Gates outraged his hosts and just about
everybody else in attendance (
) by pointing out the obvious:
The world's poorest two billion people desperately need
health care, not laptops.
At some point Gates must have noted that food and water are important,
too, because Sun's chief research officer John
After listening to three days of serious analysis and work,
and then to have Gates rather flippantly say, "You've got to
have clean water and food" -- that wasn't exactly furthering
the point of the entire meeting.
Gage heads Netday, a non-profit committed to wiring the world's
classrooms to the Net.
Over the last year the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has given
$195 million towards children's vaccines, international family
planning efforts, maternal and child mortality programs, and the
International Aids Vaccine Initiative.
Let me know how long you spent there and what your best time was. The proprietor
of the site won't publish a hall of fame, so I guess I'll have to. Thanks to the
ever-readable Need To Know for the pointer, and
now it's crawling around your desk.
Here are the contenders for the hall of fame so far. I accused "cloister
bell" of being either a replicant or a cat, but he denied it and insisted
that this result was obtained "without playing the 'guess how long it will
wait and try to time your reaction' game." Turns out both he and joshua mcgee
aren't using the mouse, finding (logically) that humans can press a key a
lot faster than they can click a mouse.
I have omitted a time of 0 sec. sent in by a TBTF Irregular who admitted to
playing the guessing game. Kevin O'Malley badgered a friend (0.170.sec.)
into confessing to another cheat: hit and hold the Stop button immediately
after hitting Start; then release when the color changes. Doesn't work with
my setup (IE 5.0, Mac).
Updated 2000-11-10, 6:50 pm:
cloister bell 0.080 sec.
joshua mcgee 0.110
pete m. wilson 0.130
gautam nimkar 0.160
joshua mcgee 0.170
hugh d. hyatt 0.180
marc mesmer 0.220
andrew roberts 0.250
david chess 0.270
keith dawson 0.272 sec.